Date: Thursday 20 October 2022, 14-16 h CET, Online
The world is witnessing an unprecedented year with fires, storms and floods, and now an energy and food crisis. This is a strong wake-up call that beyond urgency responses and short term considerations, a planetary emergency with looming tipping points is unfolding and requires bold and systemic responses. In this first Knowledge for Sustainability talk organised by DG RTD and EUStaff4Climate with the help of Active Seniors in the research area, Sandrine Dixson-Declève will set the scene. Our guest speakers, Luke Kemp, Owen Gaffney and Julia Kim will share key insights from their papers Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios and Earth for All: Survival Guide for Humanity. Participants will have opportunity to ask questions to the speakers and engage in participatory reflection. The Knowledge for Sustainability talks invite colleagues from EU Institutions, bodies and agencies to take a broader, long-term perspective, beyond the immediate policy-making calendar. They aim to offer disruptive and uncomfortable wisdom to make EU narratives and policies more robust. What could staff of the EU Institutions do to help that the necessary giant leap gets off the ground and humanity survives the planetary emergency?
Agenda
Introduction: • Thomas Arnold, Active Senior Green Transition
Setting the scene:
• Sandrine Dixson-Declève, Co-president Club of Rome (10 minutes)
Keynotes:
• Luke Kemp, Research Associate, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, University of Cambridge: Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios (15 minutes), https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
• Owen Gaffney, co-lead of the Earth4All project, co-founder of the Exponential Roadmap Initiative and Chief Impact Officer at the Nobel Prizes: Earth for All: A Survival guide for humanity (10 minutes), Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity — Earth4All
• Julia Kim, Program Director, Gross National Happiness Centre Bhutan: Innovative and lifeaffirming alternatives – perspectives from the Global South (10 minutes)
Q&A, Participants sharing their feelings, participatory discussion • Moderation: Obhi Chatterjee, DG HR, Anna Smedeby, EPSO/EUStaff4Climate
Closure: • Anastasios Kentarchos, Advisor Climate Science & Innovation, DG RTD
Background
• Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108146119
Abstract “Prudent risk management requires consideration of bad-to-worst-case scenarios. Yet, for climate change, such potential futures are poorly understood. Could anthropogenic climate change result in worldwide societal collapse or even eventual human extinction? At present, this is a dangerously underexplored topic. Yet there are ample reasons to suspect that climate change could result in a global catastrophe. Analyzing the mechanisms for these extreme consequences could help galvanize action, improve resilience, and inform policy, including emergency responses. We outline current knowledge about the likelihood of extreme climate change, discuss why understanding bad-to-worst cases is vital, articulate reasons for concern about catastrophic outcomes, define key terms, and put forward a research agenda. The proposed agenda covers four main questions: 1) What is the potential for climate change to drive mass extinction events? 2) What are the mechanisms that could result in human mass mortality and morbidity? 3) What are human societies' vulnerabilities to climate-triggered risk cascades, such as from conflict, political instability, and systemic financial risk? 4) How can these multiple strands of evidence—together with other global dangers—be usefully synthesized into an “integrated catastrophe assessment”? It is time for the scientific community to grapple with the challenge of better understanding catastrophic climate change.”
• Earth4All, Survival Guide to Humanity
Earth for All launch events — Earth4All Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity — Earth4All Authors: Dixson-Declève, Owen Gaffney, Jayati Ghosh, Jörgen Rangers, Johan Rockstroem, Per Espen Stoknes “Earth for All: A Survival Guide for Humanity (September 2022), is a unique book. For the first time, it presents the results of a remarkable two-year broad-minded research collaboration, Earth4All. Earth4All brought together many of the world’s leading economic thinkers and system dynamics scientists to explore two scenarios for this century: what if the world makes incremental efforts to deal with existential crises, or, what if the world embarks on bold economic strategy to achieve prosperity for on a liveable planet.” “The economic operating system keeps crashing. It’s time to upgrade to a new one. Five decades ago, The Limits to Growth shocked the world by showing that population and industrial growth were pushing humanity towards a cliff. Today the world recognizes that we are now at the cliff edge: Earth has crossed multiple planetary boundaries while widespread inequality is causing deep instabilities in societies. There seems to be no way out. Earth For All is both an antidote to despair and a road map to a better future. Using powerful state-of-the-art computer modeling to explore policies likely to deliver the most good for the majority of people, a leading group of scientists and economists from around the world present five extraordinary turnarounds to achieve prosperity for all within planetary limits in a single generation. Coverage includes: • Results of new global modeling that indicates falling well-being and rising social tensions heighten risk of regional societal collapses • Two alternative scenarios – Too-Little-Too-Late vs The Giant Leap – and what they mean for our collective future • Five system-shifting steps that can upend poverty and inequality, lift up marginalized people, and transform our food and energy systems by 2050 • A clear pathway to reboot our global economic system so it works for all people and the planet. Written in an open, accessible, and inspirational style using clear language and high impact visuals, Earth For All is a profound vision for uncertain times and a map to a better future. This survival guide for humanity is required reading for everyone concerned about living well on a fragile planet.” Survival guide to humanity, Launch events, https://www.earth4all.life/news/launch-events
As part of the Earth4All project, collaborators have submitted deep-dive papers to delve further into the issues and solutions needed to transform our economic system and provide an equitable future for all on a finite planet. https://www.earth4all.life/visuals-and-briefs
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