Abrupt global ocean circulation collapse. Time to start prepping?

Christopher Lozinski
Christopher Lozinski • 29 December 2022

I think that very few people understand the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or what a huge risk it poses for Europe.    The devastating droughts this summer were caused by the AMOC being at its lowest point in 1200 years, and now they say it is the weakest in 1600 years.  It is all getting worse so fast.

AMOC Circulation

You can learn more about the AMOC by clicking here.

"If only people knew how bad climate change already is, and what happened the last time the AMOC collapsed."

I am quite aware that many are on Christmas vacation,  I am just posting a little news to keep this site active.   Now let us see who is paying attention.  I completed a translation of the draft syllabus into 7 languages.  But I am waiting to officially announce it until next Wednesday when people are back at work. 



 

Comments (5)

María de la Yedra Martínez Expósito
María de la Yedra Martínez Expósito

We often try to convince ourselves all this won't happen or will happen in the very long term and we have enough time to act. But the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) report indicates that the AMOC has already weakened.
Any substantial weakening of the AMOC would cause a further decrease in marine productivity in the North Atlantic, more storms in northern Europe....and, of course, a worldwide disasters. If it shuts down completely, "La Niña" could become permanet and that's just the start of the trouble.
The AMOC has undergone exceptional weakening in the last 150 years compared to the previous 1500 years. It's something really serious and not to be taken as a joke.

Karl DONERT
Karl DONERT

Hi Christopher
Thanks for the post - it's really good to raise this and the new research that is being done, however according to the UK Met Office, "climate models suggest that the AMOC will weaken over the 21st Century as greenhouse gases increase. This is because as the atmosphere warms, the surface ocean beneath it retains more of its heat. Meanwhile increases in rainfall and ice melt mean it gets fresher too. All these changes make the ocean water lighter and so reduce the sinking in the ‘conveyor belt’, leading to a weaker AMOC. So the AMOC is very likely to weaken, but it’s considered very unlikely that large, rapid changes in the AMOC, as seen in past times, will happen in the 21st Century".
So this new research has still to gain significant acceptance and as educators we have to be careful not to find ourselves exaggerating the potential impacts, and frightening our students. I think we should try to keep to the facts and data - as AMOC has only been measured regularly since 2004 - we simply do not know, nor can we yet predict with any accuracy, what the future will bring. But I believe it is an important issue that we ought to teach about and its impact on the development of previous ice ages for example as polar ice melted.
Hope this comment adds to the debate here :-))

Christopher Lozinski
Christopher Lozinski

I totally agree with you that we need to not panic the students. I provide links to success stories, and climate victories, but I leave the best way to do that to the teachers and psychologists. My job, is to educate people, so they know how things really are.

Here is the evidence that the AMOC is weakest in the last millenium. (Since AD 400)
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00699-z

While they do not directly measure it, they have proxy measurements.

My favorite climate scientist is Paul Beckwith. I have been following him for quite a while. He does a great job explaining the science and predicting where things are going. He coined the term "Weather Wilding" years ago. Here is what he says about the last time the AMOC collapsed.

https://paulbeckwith.net/2022/10/23/massive-methane-hydrate-destabiliza…

I totally trust him, but if you want a more main stream scientific perspective, I can recommend this guy from the Potsdam institute, but it is a bit long winded and boring.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-021-00699-z

But just look around you at the extreme heat and drought in Europe this summer. Observable evidence that something is wrong with the AMOC. And the worst was the heat wave we just had in the middle of winter.

https://www.commondreams.org/news/europe-record-temperatures-january

These things scare me and horrify me. Climate change is happening way faster than expected.
https://uncensorednews.us/faster-than-expected

IMHO: These guys who talk about things changing in a century or so, are just wrong.

I leave it to others to decide what to tell the students.

Karl DONERT
Karl DONERT

Thanks Christopher - an excellent response and keep up the good work :-)) It is vital that we keep right up to date and monitor and promote the latest findings .... after all we need to change human behaviour to really make an impact.


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